The health of the network is almost as good as it gets .
And it seems like this is a bull market , famed investor , Kathy Wood Ceo of Arkin Invests just went on C NBC this morning and confirmed a few things .
This is a global , if anyone owning Bitcoin knows this is global , this is not just a us opportunity and it's big .
And you know , if you look at , if you look at uh both Ether and Bitcoin , our expectation is well that the crypto asset ecosystem will be dominated by those two and that it is going to scale from a little more than a trillion dollars today to $25 trillion in 2030 .
As this new world builds out .
This is almost , I mean , I was at the beginning of the internet , not really that was DARPA and everything , but as we were studying it in the market in the nineties , this feels like that again .
And what she says next will shock you .
The reason we have focused as much on Ether Ethereum as we have is we think .
But if you hold crypto important the eight day window for the approval of 12 Bitcoin Spot Etfs is closing soon .
Kathy Wood owns one of them .
If you look at the pecking order , our filing is next in line .
No , I know you , you're on the list .
This will lead to huge demand for actual Bitcoin in the space , meaning these funds will be forced to buy Bitcoin .
But if they aren't accepted within the next four days , then we may have to wait until January 2024 .
Can we talk about spot Bitcoin though ?
What is the current timeline ?
I know that you and some others have been tweeting about windows .
Apparently , we're in one of them in terms of when we could see the 19 B fours approved .
What's going on .
So there's no four , you've got to walk us through that kind of jargon .
Yeah , 19 B four is basically it's uh you file for a rule change proposal to and in this case , the rule change proposal is to list Bitcoin Bitcoin ETF , spot Bitcoin ETF .
Uh And so there's all these deadlines and clocks , but all you really need to know is right now , there's a window , there's 12 different Spot Bitcoin ETF applications right now out there , there's a window right now where there's no comment periods , there's nothing that he has to do in all of them .
So theoretically , if they really wanted , they could approve all of them at once .
We also don't like we're not as tied up on that window .
Yes , that's possible .
But also like I said , there's 12 filings , nine of them , it doesn't matter anytime from now to January 10th , they can be approved and theoretically list at some point within that time range .
There's two processes that need to go on here .
There needs to be an S one approval and a 19 before approval 19 before is the one that everyone's been watching .
The one we've been watching closely and the one that we think is going to happen by January .
So looking at the Bitcoin price since the start of the year , start of 2023 Bitcoin has been rallying into the expectation of an approval .
Is this all just hype or is there some clear substance , some change in the SEC where they would approve ?
And the question is actually at $36,000 .
Do you think that the move that we've seen in Bitcoin over the last ?
I don't know what two months now , how much of that is a function of sort of a pent up demand or an anticipation that the SEC ?
Because folks like Blackrock and Fidelity and you and others have made these applications have the sense that it's more likely to happen now than it was a year or two ago .
And is that misguided ?
Is that realistic ?
What is that ?
I think what has happened ?
The change is that the SEC actually asked us questions , I think , asked us questions , asked Blackrock probably has asked a lot , whereas before our filings were just rejected out of hand .
So that is movement that is significant .
And , you know , over the years , I've gotten to know the research people at the SEC .
And I'm very impressed and I was impressed by the questions they asked us too .
So what were the kinds of questions they asked ?
A lot of them were very technical .
They're all about protecting the consumer .
And now we may have that clarity by the head of the Sec Gary Gensler who was hand picked back in the day by Elizabeth Warren .
Even though Gary Gensler clearly understands the technology behind Bitcoin extremely well , why she believes he may be holding the spot et hostage he taught at MIT about .
So he understands that it's not a Ponzi scheme or a beanie baby .
So there has to be something else .
Well , I don't know what it is .
I have wondered there's speculation that he's interested in the treasury secretary position at some point .
What does the Treasury secretary fiat for the government ?
I mean , very focused on , I don't know and while we will talk about traditional markets , well as the latest CP I inflation data , which just came out today , let's just be very clear .
Is this a case of buy the rumor , then maybe sell the news .
How much do you account for the move in Bitcoin as speculation on an ETF being approved ?
And is it a buy the rumor , sell the news kind of situation or is it just a straight shot if in fact , that were to come to be , I am sure there is some anticipation and there could even be a sell on the news .
But the fundamentals , we put out a Bitcoin monthly piece every month and you can see the health of the network using our on chain metrics .
The health of the network is almost as good as it gets and it seems like this is a bull market .
Sure we'll have puts and takes nothing goes straight up .
But I think this flight to quality Larry Fink used that expression .
We call it flight to safety .
You look at what happened during the regional bank crisis .
Bitcoin went from 19,000 to nearly 30,000 as the Kr the bank , the regional bank stock index was imploding .
If you look at the bank stock index today , it is back down close to where it was in March .
Now , the latest results for inflation are in headline CP I came in at 3.2% lower than expectations .
And core CP I came in at 4% again , lower than expectations .
This is bullish , meaning you can see the effects of the FED starting to take hold .
Maybe disinflation is now more likely than hyper inflation .
And now that we know that this was better than expectations , maybe that means now the FED can lighten up even more on suppressing markets notice what fundstrat Global Advisors , managing partner , Tom Lee said yesterday .
So this was a day before the results .
He'll talk about how the SNP .
This is the month chart on the SNP rallied into this news , meaning the market expected favorable results .
And if the results would have been higher , more heated , what would that mean ?
Or lower , less heated closer to what we got ?
What does that mean ?
You might be surprised but I think institutional investors and retail have been fighting this rally .
Um You can see it in the put ratio .
Yes , the put call ratio today hit 1.26 .
That's an extremely elevated reading .
It's been rising the last two weeks .
And if you look since the October 27th rally every time an intra day , 1.2 is or higher has been hit , we've rallied hard the next day .
So I think into this print , if it's a little hot , I think people end up having to buy this dip because hedge funds have been shorting this rally .
I know sentiments negative , but I actually think that probabilities favor a slightly softer reading .
The skew is for a hot reading and I think we could get something that could feel like a face ripper like we had in July .
So there's a possibility of of quite a positive move tomorrow if it's a soft reading .
So basically markets are likely to go up if it's hot and markets are likely to go up a lot more if it's cold .
That's right .
Core CP I year over year , anything under 4.2 is bullish for him .
So you're looking at the month over month , not the year over year that I referenced .
Yes , the year over year matters on the core , it's still 42 year over year .
So something below 42 would be considered a soft side face ripper , possibly face ripper if you're invested in Cryptocurrency , make sure you subscribe .
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People are worried about a hard landing and inflation for 20 years .
That's exactly the point .
Which is funny because everybody knocks C NBC .
They're always like you guys are always pumping the market .
It's like everybody I know is bearish constantly , you know .
That's right .
I think and wrong .
I think people forget that stocks tend to surprise us against what consensus is thinking .
And I would say put call doesn't lie , prime brokerage position doesn't lie .
The CT A chart shows the constellation of data shows .
People are still net short , not a believer in a seasonal year end rally .
That's non consensus view .
Like all we see tomorrow .