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2023-11-15 08:42:27

Cathie Wood - The Crypto Bull Run Is About To Go F_king Crazy (8 Day Warning)

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The health of the network is almost as good as it gets .

And it seems like this is a bull market , famed investor , Kathy Wood Ceo of Arkin Invests just went on C NBC this morning and confirmed a few things .

This is a global , if anyone owning Bitcoin knows this is global , this is not just a us opportunity and it's big .

And you know , if you look at , if you look at uh both Ether and Bitcoin , our expectation is well that the crypto asset ecosystem will be dominated by those two and that it is going to scale from a little more than a trillion dollars today to $25 trillion in 2030 .

As this new world builds out .

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This is almost , I mean , I was at the beginning of the internet , not really that was DARPA and everything , but as we were studying it in the market in the nineties , this feels like that again .

And what she says next will shock you .

The reason we have focused as much on Ether Ethereum as we have is we think .

But if you hold crypto important the eight day window for the approval of 12 Bitcoin Spot Etfs is closing soon .

Kathy Wood owns one of them .

If you look at the pecking order , our filing is next in line .

No , I know you , you're on the list .

This will lead to huge demand for actual Bitcoin in the space , meaning these funds will be forced to buy Bitcoin .

But if they aren't accepted within the next four days , then we may have to wait until January 2024 .

Can we talk about spot Bitcoin though ?

What is the current timeline ?

I know that you and some others have been tweeting about windows .

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Apparently , we're in one of them in terms of when we could see the 19 B fours approved .

What's going on .

Yeah .

So there's no four , you've got to walk us through that kind of jargon .

Yeah , 19 B four is basically it's uh you file for a rule change proposal to and in this case , the rule change proposal is to list Bitcoin Bitcoin ETF , spot Bitcoin ETF .

Uh And so there's all these deadlines and clocks , but all you really need to know is right now , there's a window , there's 12 different Spot Bitcoin ETF applications right now out there , there's a window right now where there's no comment periods , there's nothing that he has to do in all of them .

So theoretically , if they really wanted , they could approve all of them at once .

We also don't like we're not as tied up on that window .

Yes , that's possible .

But also like I said , there's 12 filings , nine of them , it doesn't matter anytime from now to January 10th , they can be approved and theoretically list at some point within that time range .

There's two processes that need to go on here .

There needs to be an S one approval and a 19 before approval 19 before is the one that everyone's been watching .

The one we've been watching closely and the one that we think is going to happen by January .

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So looking at the Bitcoin price since the start of the year , start of 2023 Bitcoin has been rallying into the expectation of an approval .

Is this all just hype or is there some clear substance , some change in the SEC where they would approve ?

And the question is actually at $36,000 .

Do you think that the move that we've seen in Bitcoin over the last ?

I don't know what two months now , how much of that is a function of sort of a pent up demand or an anticipation that the SEC ?

Because folks like Blackrock and Fidelity and you and others have made these applications have the sense that it's more likely to happen now than it was a year or two ago .

Yes .

And is that misguided ?

Is that realistic ?

What is that ?

I think what has happened ?

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The change is that the SEC actually asked us questions , I think , asked us questions , asked Blackrock probably has asked a lot , whereas before our filings were just rejected out of hand .

Ok .

So that is movement that is significant .

And , you know , over the years , I've gotten to know the research people at the SEC .

And I'm very impressed and I was impressed by the questions they asked us too .

So what were the kinds of questions they asked ?

A lot of them were very technical .

They're all about protecting the consumer .

And now we may have that clarity by the head of the Sec Gary Gensler who was hand picked back in the day by Elizabeth Warren .

Why ?

Even though Gary Gensler clearly understands the technology behind Bitcoin extremely well , why she believes he may be holding the spot et hostage he taught at MIT about .

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So he understands that it's not a Ponzi scheme or a beanie baby .

So there has to be something else .

Well , I don't know what it is .

I have wondered there's speculation that he's interested in the treasury secretary position at some point .

What does the Treasury secretary fiat for the government ?

I mean , very focused on , I don't know and while we will talk about traditional markets , well as the latest CP I inflation data , which just came out today , let's just be very clear .

Is this a case of buy the rumor , then maybe sell the news .

How much do you account for the move in Bitcoin as speculation on an ETF being approved ?

And is it a buy the rumor , sell the news kind of situation or is it just a straight shot if in fact , that were to come to be , I am sure there is some anticipation and there could even be a sell on the news .

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But the fundamentals , we put out a Bitcoin monthly piece every month and you can see the health of the network using our on chain metrics .

The health of the network is almost as good as it gets and it seems like this is a bull market .

Sure we'll have puts and takes nothing goes straight up .

But I think this flight to quality Larry Fink used that expression .

We call it flight to safety .

You look at what happened during the regional bank crisis .

Bitcoin went from 19,000 to nearly 30,000 as the Kr the bank , the regional bank stock index was imploding .

If you look at the bank stock index today , it is back down close to where it was in March .

Now , the latest results for inflation are in headline CP I came in at 3.2% lower than expectations .

And core CP I came in at 4% again , lower than expectations .

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This is bullish , meaning you can see the effects of the FED starting to take hold .

Maybe disinflation is now more likely than hyper inflation .

And now that we know that this was better than expectations , maybe that means now the FED can lighten up even more on suppressing markets notice what fundstrat Global Advisors , managing partner , Tom Lee said yesterday .

So this was a day before the results .

He'll talk about how the SNP .

This is the month chart on the SNP rallied into this news , meaning the market expected favorable results .

And if the results would have been higher , more heated , what would that mean ?

Or lower , less heated closer to what we got ?

What does that mean ?

Brian ?

You might be surprised but I think institutional investors and retail have been fighting this rally .

Um You can see it in the put ratio .

Yes , the put call ratio today hit 1.26 .

That's an extremely elevated reading .

It's been rising the last two weeks .

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And if you look since the October 27th rally every time an intra day , 1.2 is or higher has been hit , we've rallied hard the next day .

So I think into this print , if it's a little hot , I think people end up having to buy this dip because hedge funds have been shorting this rally .

I know sentiments negative , but I actually think that probabilities favor a slightly softer reading .

The skew is for a hot reading and I think we could get something that could feel like a face ripper like we had in July .

So there's a possibility of of quite a positive move tomorrow if it's a soft reading .

So basically markets are likely to go up if it's hot and markets are likely to go up a lot more if it's cold .

That's right .

Core CP I year over year , anything under 4.2 is bullish for him .

So you're looking at the month over month , not the year over year that I referenced .

Yes , the year over year matters on the core , it's still 42 year over year .

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So something below 42 would be considered a soft side face ripper , possibly face ripper if you're invested in Cryptocurrency , make sure you subscribe .

We drop one video per day , keeping you informed .

People are worried about a hard landing and inflation for 20 years .

Tom .

That's exactly the point .

Which is funny because everybody knocks C NBC .

They're always like you guys are always pumping the market .

It's like everybody I know is bearish constantly , you know .

That's right .

I think and wrong .

Correct .

I think people forget that stocks tend to surprise us against what consensus is thinking .

And I would say put call doesn't lie , prime brokerage position doesn't lie .

The CT A chart shows the constellation of data shows .

People are still net short , not a believer in a seasonal year end rally .

That's non consensus view .

Like all we see tomorrow .


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