Hey , hey there pumpkin .
So if you've been listening to me , which you have , I have a dark cursed prophecy and I haven't drawn out here these nice , lovely squiggly lines as an in a nutshell .
This is a 70% chance .
I never marry one per chance ever completely .
But it is just a 70% chance .
And it is the Black Rock ETF has a pump and dump and then it has the real pump and dump and they , you do that to be a Trojan horse .
We get unfortunate innocent victims , retail , mum and dad into Bitcoin and crypto and then they do the caboose on the way down and in here that's where they take everybody's rights , they get everybody to come in and they sacrifice the regulations and the free will and everything we want .
They make crypto great .
Even with the limited view we have on the exchanges , the people will just hand it all over and they'll say regulate us , regulate us .
Send me over , please .
And in the midst of that turmoil , the government will usher in further draconian laws on CBD CS .
That's my base case .
And unfortunately , it's happening right now .
But I got asked what would make me believe a scenario where we actually get the bull case , what would happen ?
So in this base base case , you gotta remember , someone's gotta buy this top .
You're thinking , well , who's gonna buy this top ?
If we all think it's a scam ?
You gotta remember uh 98% of people have Bitcoin minimum , 100 K minimum , right ?
So I believe we can stop , by the way , we can stop at 68 up to 80 .
We can still stop here anywhere in this box .
So don't get too hung up on this .
Yeah , it's possible because the thing about this friends , not a single person in the world is going to be selling Bitcoin at 70,000 .
Like you waited all this time , you had the bull market cut off in 2021 .
There is no way anyone's selling and that's precisely why it is the Achilles heel of everyone and then Cabo , right ?
Not now remember 70% chance , but there is another chance that it does not play out like this .
Here is where I explain because you're a beautiful pumpkin pie and you got a straight back and of course , you've got your ears perked up .
So what would increase my chances of Bitcoin reaching 100 to 200 K ?
We would need to break the cycle in 2024 .
That's exactly what we would need to do .
But we would need to get pain first .
Not the good way .
So if we go back here , this scam , the dark cursed prophecy happens because people are front running 2025 .
Now , if you remember in Bitcoin , we normally have three green years after the Bitcoin Haring year , which which means not after the Bitcoin Harvey year , but in the Bitcoin Harvey and the year after that .
So there there's a bear market year and then three green years .
So if 2024 is going to be a green year , so this is January 2024 where we start and then January 2025 here .
So if we are finishing up , that's a green year , everybody's gonna believe 2025 is a green year .
They're gonna just be like , ok , well , you know , that's what this , this friends , this is what everybody does .
They do linear extrapolation .
That's what retailers do .
So let's say we finish this year .
40 K just guessing .
Well , and let's say we finish December 2024 at 80 K .
We go , well , Bitcoin went 100% in the year 2024 .
So from January 2024 to January 2025 we went 100% .
And then what people will do is they'll say , well , if we just repeated that again , we're gonna get to 100 and 60 K .
You double 80 K again .
Now this is exactly what you're gonna , your , your S are gonna be ringing friends because this is exactly what you're gonna see .
Everyone's gonna do this linear stuff .
They're gonna go , well , it went up two X four .
It's gonna go up two X again .
This is where everybody gets precisely chucked .
This is why Black , uh , Blackberry is a Trojan Horse Lazar .
He's a lizard man .
You can't trust these people friends .
I'm telling you right now .
You can't trust these people .
They know what they're doing .
They're in power for a reason .
We are peanut brains .
We don't have the power .
All we have is a little salty peanut rolling around in our skull .
So if we see the crowd doing this , if we see Jim Cramer calling for 300,000 , all these other world numbers , you got to be prepared to understand that the suckers were buying in 2024 .
Let me go back in time to show you the suckers were not buying in 2020 .
The Bitcoin Harve year , this is Bitcoin Haring .
The smart people were buying in the Bitcoin Harve year .
The suckers were buying in the year after the Bitcoin Haring year .
So I'm gonna do s for smart D for dumb .
Now , if we go back again , if we go back to the previous cycle , here we go again .
The smart people were buying Bitcoin in the Bitcoin Harting year and the dumb people were buying a year after .
Do you understand ?
Yes , you do .
That's two times .
Now , what if we go back again ?
It's the same thing .
The smart people were buying in the Bitcoin Harting year of 2012 and they were , the dumb money was buying at the very , very end a year and a half later .
Everybody knows this now .
So you might say , ok , what if that repeats again ?
I hope it does .
But everybody knows this .
Now , the dumb money is only dumb to those evil overlords .
They're only dumb when they're in the unknown .
If they all think that the dumb money is coming in 2025 what do they do ?
If everybody knows friends ?
See , I just showed you that big fat D we all love the big fat D if everybody knows the dumb money is coming in 2025 then the smart money is gonna buy in 2024 .
But look what happens now , friends , you see that d , now the dumb money buys in 2024 because they're front , they're front running the new , the old dumb money .
You see now , now you're probably wondering , you go .
So who's the smart people ?
Well , we are , we are already long .
The smart people pre-empt this .
The smart people buy in the depression .
If you buy in the depression , you buy low , you're always winning .
You're always winning because it's the hardest thing to do .
It's everybody's telling you it's a scam , it's a Ponzi , it's gone at zero .
Everybody got S Rug Pool , the sec , everyone's fighting all over everybody and there's , the farts are very , very smelly .
Who ate vegetables , who ate too many protein beans .
That's the smart money .
They're the people who win .
We are buying with the blackberries because they control the narrative .
So we did not know who we were buying with .
We just knew we were buying with somebody who's smart money because they control the future .
That's why smart money is .
Smart , smart money knows what the future's gonna be because they control the future .
So you don't know who's buying .
You just know it's an area .
It's a feeling where smart money , MS and they exit on the euphoria .
So if we were to reverse this , we would need a bad year of 2024 .
We would need everybody to get screwed in 2024 .
So instead of when we go back down , so this would , this would throw the cycle off .
So instead of so January 2024 right , we would have to see , we would have to see a bad year .
I don't know what's gonna happen .
You never know .
Maybe we finished the year good for 2024 but in 2020 but for all of 2024 like if we just finished down , bang , like if we just actually finished year , we crashed .
Think about that .
Imagine like we actually like 2024 and you never know .
We go finish 2024 .
And then 00 , we crashed back down like the 30 k back tier .
That would be perfect .
That would make me really bullish because then we'd probably do the cup and handle because we would get so many people out .
However you might say , wait a minute , didn't we crash in the year 2020 with the zombie virus ?
Yes , we did .
But they did .
Infinite QE and the crashing happened in the first quarter of the year and after that , it was up only so we we yes , we rinsed one shock , rinse and then we had infinite QE stimulus , right ?
Stimulus with consent .
We had , we had the negative yielding bonds thrown out everywhere , the infinite Qes 0% interest rates .
And we look , we finished the year .
We go to December .
Look how high we finished as well .
We finished the year super strong .
So it's to show you that , you know , we finished the year really , really good basically for 2020 based off where we started , which is around here .
You see that bang ?
Look , that's the green year .
We finished green .
So if we were to get a bad year , it would feel really shocking to our guts .
But then I would increase my chances that we're gonna get a great , we're gonna get , we're gonna bust 100 K .
I think if we get this year , by the way , it might not happen for , it probably won't happen .
At all .
I just telling you if it happens , I think when we get to 100 K that's the retailer trap , they'll sell there and it will actually go to 200 make them rebuy the top .
That's what I think will happen .
If , if that happens .
But this , from what I can see right now , it's not happening because if the Black Rock ETF is coming , there's just such a wall of money and pressure , it'll be too hard .
So , you know , it depends , it depends .
Friends does the stock market roll over .
But you might say , well , if the stock market rolls over 2024 they're just gonna print anyway .
Does that mean we have a ghost fractal of 2020 ?
We don't know all the answers .
But unfortunately right now , Blackberry and Lizard think Trojan horses can't be trusted .
They're getting mums and mums and dads in .
So that's our base case right now .
Just the higher odds even though the other one is still possible .
And here we have so shout out to Mr Axis .
Mr Axis saying I'm with you .
Double bubble vibes , triple top next year .
Real blow off 2026 .
That's possible .
But look , I just feel like if we crash in this 2025 I feel like the blowoff won't happen in 2026 .
I just feel like we just go oh this up , only slow , painful grind and everybody will be fading .
Do you see this zone .
If this happens , everybody will be in disbelief why it's because everybody's gonna say , well , the four year cycle is trash .
We're in a three year bear market and then Bitcoin just goes back and breaks the high .
You know , we might find if we , I won't be surprised friends if we stop at 80 K and we scam down when we finally do come back , we probably don't even stop at 100 .
We get retail out at 100 and we just go to 200 .
So I am mega bullish by the end of the decade .
It's just that when you have this ETF play , it's very dangerous and I really do mean dangerous .
I also have Mr Carlie Carlie heck saying I like this right after elections in America , we start going up steady or we might find friends that that's actually the top , we might find it's the top or there's only a few months left in it .
It's also very possible for that .
And mister D five Max is saying we're up for a big ass big Bitcoin bull run starting now going real high real soon .
That's my opinion .
Everyone has their own .
You should stop giving yours about that .
It is very unlikely .
And you should know .
I think you should too .
So this is what we just call big fat Hopi and copier friends .
So we have , don't remember .
So this is just interesting .
I can guarantee you Mr D five Maxi's portfolio is less than 300 K because everybody is just looking at the four year cycle going on , going to the moon .
But when I put this evidence just to show you , OK ?
Um We had in this box here we had infinite QE we had negative yielding bonds , 16 trillion .
We had 0% interest rates and inflation was going up by the way .
So crypto should have been like flushing , flushing with money like absolutely overflowing .
They're like , oh well the the dollar has gone to zero .
Yeah , we couldn't hit 100 k crypto topped out at three trillion .
So we had so many signs telling us we should be going up .
But you know what worked out the most diminishing gains , right ?
100 X 20 .
We got the , we got the , we got the uh diminishing gains .
You know what I mean ?
The first one was 600 X divided by 500 divided by 5 20 .
There you go is exactly where we stop .
So all these narratives , I know interest rates .
We think they're super impactful , but it's actually just the narrative .
Money printing .
We think it's super impactful , but it's actually just the narrative .
And I know this is what I've just said is a cardinal sin for people in Bitcoin and especially crypto .
Go no , no .
The money printing .
Oh the money printing .
They don't even know how it works , man .
The money printing is a whole scam .
It doesn't all land in our crypto bucket .
It's controlled .
They , yes , it's all about the network effects of the US .
Yes , we are growing but we're not growing as big as we think .
As soon as there's money printing , they just stop reporting on TV , that they are doing the money printing and people stop leaving the US dollar network effect and they stay in the US dollar because they think things are gonna get better because people want to stay in the system that they've been living off for so long .
I made many , many videos about this , speak , speak about it later .
So you gotta understand this no matter what narrative gets thrown in our face , people are gonna believe it .
You gotta remember , man , the markets are cool friends there , there's winners and there's losers in these short-term games like this .
You're not gonna win by just saying , well , we're gonna have the biggest ball run of all time .
I hope so , man .
I'm long with you .
Like I'm literally gig along .
I'm , I'm , I'm more of a believer than anybody else .
I'm literally gig along .
I'm just telling you , are you prepared for euphoria to happen at 70 K ?
Are you prepared at that ?
See , I'm not , I'm not even saying it's gonna stop .
I'm just saying , are you prepared to see euphoria at 70 K ?
We did not see Euphoria at 17 K for Bitcoin or 20 K .
We started to see Thrill at 34,000 and obviously we saw you freaking like euphoria at 50 K , we saw Michael Sala Mortgage Elon Musk .
All these , we saw them at 50 K but we didn't know that could have been at 100 K .
It could have just kept going .
And then the euphoria is at 100 and 50 K but this is just the law of the land friends , our timeline in the universe .
It said , hey , you are getting euphoria at 50 K .
What are you gonna do ?
Are you gonna act ?
So I don't know , are we gonna get euphoria at 60 K , 70 100 and 30 100 and 50 ?
Because that's all we're doing .
We're just guessing .
Where are we gonna get euphoria ?
We have absolutely no idea .
I'm just telling you we can get euphoria at 70 K .
That's all I've been saying .
I'm super bullish .
I'm just just telling you , we don't have to wait till 200 K to see euphoria .
People are gonna be euphoric at $70,000 and fans just to remember at the end of the day .
So Mr Asian po po Sex Kwan .
This is funny , right ?
Look at his user name .
So people want poo coins like this coin and Mad gains no-one cares about utility .
It's true .
But OK , it's , it's you gotta think about this .
No-one cares about utility in their 60 day windows but stuff with growing network effects .
If you look at them in any 60 day window , they're gonna look like a poop .
But what we might find is , ok , utility coins or coins are the growing network effects .
They're just gonna keep climbing up the stairs .
They just gonna keep climbing up the stairs and before you know it at the end right here , things that you threw away , they , they might be up 12 X 15 , 25 30 times your money by the end of the bull market .
While Bitcoin's only up A two X and the , the is only up like a three X .
So , so 10 , 15 , 20 times your money is huge .
So we might find that .
So , yes , if you're taking a very short-term view , you're going to be constantly lured into hamster racing A I coins all this other garbage .
But if you let the , the power of time , compound interest work in your favor , putting yourself on a weekly time frame , you are going to come out ahead .
So friends , let me know what you think .
I mean right now , I have absolutely zero reason to believe that 2024 is gonna be a bad red year just because we're not even seeing any FOMO for 2024 yet .
Everybody's just hoping that the Bitcoin Harting comes .
So what would make me rethink it ?
You know , you know if they could get Bitcoin .
I'm not joking if they could get Bitcoin to 60 K by the end of this year and shock everybody .
It's possible 2020 four's trash , which increases our chances of doing , of doing great .
But if we keep our Bitcoin within the range of 30 to 45 K , then unfortunately , this dark curse prophecy of the Trojan horse is gonna play out and don't forget at the end of the day , everybody's gonna be watching the Bitcoin Venning and the 12 months following up .
But me and you , we're gonna be watching the stock market , like , subscribe to Bebo nor to mum and dad , we still love them .
Doesn't matter what scenario friends plays out .
We're still gonna make it catch you in the next one .